The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has recommended that the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035.
The reduction suggested by the CCC, a public body formed under the Climate Change Act to advise the government on tackling climate change, is based on its advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget, which it will publish in February 2025.
In August, energy secretary Ed Miliband wrote to the CCC’s interim chair, Piers Forster, asking that the public body offer guidance on the UK’s 2035 NDC target level, factoring in targets already laid out by the 2033-2037 period in the UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget as well as any differences between carbon budgets and NDCs.
Additionally, the letter sought advice on the impact of including or not including international aviation and shipping (IAS) emissions in the UK’s NDC.
The CCC’s NDC recommendations do not include IAS emissions in the headline target but Forster’s response to Miliband states the UK must nonetheless maintain its ambition to reduce its share of IAS emissions.
IAS emissions are included in the UK’s current domestic target of net zero by 2050 and the CCC recommends that IAS emissions start to reduce during the 2020s.
In 2020, when the NDC for 2030 was published, the CCC’s Carbon Budget recommendation was for 78% reduction by 2035 from 1990; the Sixth Carbon Budget advice did include IAS emissions, and a change in methodology means that the newly recommended 81% reduction is consistent with ambition legislated in the previous budget.
That reduction is considered to reflect the UK’s ‘highest possible ambition’, says the CCC, and would make a credible contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5ºC.
In the letter responding to Miliband, Forster writes that the UK’s contribution towards agreed climate change goals should be accompanied by “clear plans to leverage the UK’s strengths in finance to unlock much greater levels of public and private investment in a resilient low-carbon global transition”.
As well as a stronger National Adaptation Programme and a plan for alignment with the National Biodiversity Strategy, Forster suggests that the government strengthen and contribute to international initiatives.
Commenting on the publication of his response, Forster called the 81% target “the right level of ambition”.
He continued: “Our analysis shows this can be achieved in a way that benefits jobs and the economy, provided we hit the country’s 2030 target – set in line with the CCC’s advice in 2020.
“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today. More than any commitment, what we really need is action. I have no doubt that the United Kingdom can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”
Labour government’s climate policy successes so far
Since coming to power, the government has taken major steps in the right direction. Labour has had to make up a lot of ground, having inherited a nation in need of “immediate and urgent action” to have any chance of achieving 2030 targets, according to a CCC report published in July.
In terms of international efforts, prime minister Keir Starmer met last week with the Australian prime minister, announcing an Australia-UK Climate and Energy Partnership.
Efforts to improve investor confidence do seem to have paid off somewhat: over £24 billion in private investment for clean energy projects was confirmed in October, with Australian financial services company Macquarie Group dedicating £1.3 billion and Spanish-owned Iberdrola committing to double its UK investments from £12 billion to £24 billion over the next four years.
Headlining Labour’s climate policy has been the establishment of the state-owned Great British Energy company, which will see £8.3 billion of government spending across its term. The funding commitment is intended as an indicator of the UK’s potential and another effort by the government to entice private investments.
