Energy research organisation Cornwall Insight has released its forecast for the July-September UK energy price cap.
The research group predicts that the July price cap will fall to £1,574 per year for the average dual fuel, direct debit customer. This represents a drop of around 7% from the current price cap of £1,690.
Looking further ahead, Cornwall Insight forecasts that the cap will rise slightly in October before falling again in January 2025.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “When faced with headlines announcing minor changes to the cap it can be easy to overlook the broader trend of declines. Our projections suggest that from July, the average annual bill will fall by around £500 compared to last summer, offering further relief given the quarter-on-quarter drop seen in April.”
Lowrey added: “While the cap is certainly not the ticket back to long-term energy bill affordability, Ofgem’s review could pave the way for fairer, more efficient energy bills. However, given the breadth of reforms being considered by the regulator, it is worth remembering that such changes will inevitably lead to trade-offs.
“For example, reducing standing charges, while seemingly beneficial for low-energy users, could lead to higher unit prices. This could disproportionately impact those in less energy-efficient homes or with greater energy needs, some of whom could be vulnerable. Finding the right balance is crucial.”
Price cap fluctuations
The energy price cap has seen dramatic fluctuations in recent years, with the energy crisis which began in 2021 sending prices skyrocketing. While the current energy cap is the lowest it has been since winter 2021/2022, the energy price cap is still 49% higher than before the crisis began three years ago.
With the price cap now becoming a focus for many households, companies are stepping in to help customers keep an eye on the changes. International energy major EDF recently launched a price cap forecasting service, which provides weekly updates to help UK consumers ensure they are getting the best price for their energy.
