The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has said that current UK government policies will leave British consumers dependent on foreign gas imports into the 2030s.
Current policies “could leave British homes sending £500 a year to overseas gas producers, as import dependency rises to 85% by 2035”, the nonprofit organisation said.
Output from North Sea gas fields is in a steady decline, and will drop by 75% by 2035, which will requite an increase in gas imports unless the UK can further decarbonise its sources of energy.
The ECIU says the UK must speed up the rollout of policies to increase the deployment of home insulation and electric heat pumps or UK homes will become even more dependent on gas imports which currently account for around half the gas used, but which could rise to 85% by 2035.
An average UK household could end up using £5,700 of imported gas over the next 12 years, the ECIU said, with around £1,680 of this going to Qatar. Meanwhile, a ‘net zero home’ with better insulation, a heat pump and solar panels could be using just £10 of gas by 2035.
“Overall, the UK would be paying up to £30 billion a year for net imports of gas from the early 2030s, with the gas trade deficit being over four times the level it was before the gas crisis,” the ECIU warned.
Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, head of analysis at ECIU, said: “You can’t squeeze much more out of the North Sea; its output has been declining and the official numbers show that’s going to continue. It’s simply running out of gas.
“Those arguing against heat pumps are arguing for UK homes being more dependent on foreign gas. And with wholesale gas prices are predicted to stay two to three times higher than before the crisis, that means being dependent on an expensive fuel.
“The Government has some of the right targets for UK energy independence, but not the policies to deliver on them.”
In 2020, the UK government published its policy paper on achieving a green industrial revolution. It set out plans to “aim for 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028”. In 2022 there were 163,341 certified installations of heat pumps.
