New data from Cornwall Insight has shown that Ireland and Northern Ireland are expected to miss their 2030 emissions targets by around 20%, with excessive renewables curtailment cited as a cause.
Ireland’s Climate Action Plan sets a 2030 target for reducing electricity emissions by 75% from 2018 levels, but Cornwall Insight’s forecasts suggest Ireland will only reduce its power emissions by approximately 50% by this time. Northern Ireland is also expected to miss its 2030 emissions targets by around 20%.
According to Cornwall Insight, dispatch down – when renewable generators are asked to shut down because of high generation or low demand – is a key factor holding back Ireland from hitting its emissions targets. In December 2024, Irish onshore wind saw a 10.9% dispatch down rate, while Nothern Irish onshore wind recorded a 38.4% dispatch down rate.
One of the factors triggering curtailment of this kind is the System Non-Synchronous Penetration’ (SNSP) limit, which dictates how much renewable energy can be in the Irish grid system at any given time and is currently set at 75%. The reason for this limit is that wind energy and other renewables are not synchronized with the 50Hz frequency of the grid, meaning that too much renewable penetration could cause the frequency to change and damage energy infrastructure. Irish grid operator EirGrid has stated it aims to increase the SNSP limit to 80% in order to hit the nation’s target of having 80% of its electricity coming from renewables.
In December 2024, renewable generation made up 46.7% of Ireland’s total system demand, the majority of which came from wind power. While Ireland’s emissions are set to decline steadily between now and 2030, Northern Ireland is expected to see a near term rise in emissions due to increasing electricity demand and slow buildout of renewable energy generation.
Tom Musker, modelling manager at Cornwall Insight, said: “The potential is there for Ireland and Northern Ireland to hit their emissions targets, but the system needs to change. Without serious investment in grid infrastructure and storage, we risk wasting green energy while relying on fossil fuels to keep the lights on, making emissions targets simply unachievable.
“While both jurisdictions are on track to make sweeping changes to their energy systems, this alone will not be enough to reach the ambitious emissions target. It’s clear while renewable growth is going in the right direction, it’s just not being used to its full potential. The clock is ticking, and the governments and other stakeholders will need to think long and hard about investment in the energy system if they don’t want to see targets slip further out of reach.”
