Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has shown that many homes’ dependence on foreign energy imports could drop by 80% in the next five years.
Household Energy Security in 2030 states that with ambitious action, homes could be insulated against the volatile energy prices of recent years by 2030.
Currently, the average British household relies on imports for two-thirds (67%) of its energy needs – 17MWh of imported energy in 2024. This comes predominantly from foreign fossil fuel imports for petrol cars, gas boilers, and gas-powered electricity generation.
A switch to renewable technologies would reduce this reliance on imported energy. The ECIU says that ramping up renewables to generate British electricity, switching homes to heat pumps and electric vehicles and improving insulation would significantly cut import dependency without further North Sea exploration.
The analysis shows that under such circumstances, a household could require just 3.4MWh of imported energy in 2030. Using figures from the North Sea Transition Authority that show the inevitable decline of North Sea oil and gas irrespective of whether exploration continues, ECIU showed a typical UK home would import 3MWh more energy in 2030 than in 2024, a rise of almost 20%.
UK oil and gas production has been lower than demand for roughly 20 years, and much of the North Sea’s output is exported. As such, the UK currently imports 60% of its gas consumption and over 90% of the oil-based fuels in use.
Speed up renewables rollout to reduce import dependency
Adopting technologies that cut oil and gas demand is the only way to become less reliant on imported energy.
This latest analysis echoes the ECIU’s Future Energy Security report. Released at the beginning of June, it previously stated that should there be a faster uptake of net zero technologies, there is potential to maintain the current level of import dependency by 2030.
Those figures take into account foreign imports for grid stability. Applying the scenarios examined in the previous outlook, Household Energy Security in 2030 ECIU estimates how household energy imports could evolve by 2030.
According to ECIU, a typical household in 2030, with a gas boiler, typical gas and electricity demand, and a petrol car, would have the same end-use energy demand as today—about 22MWh.
Assuming there was no further action on renewables, energy efficiency or electrical technologies like heat pumps or EVs but that new licenses resulted in more oil and gas production, the average household would rely on over 20MWh of imported energy.
As such, households would be more dependent on imported energy – up from almost 70% in 2024 to 81% in 2030.
However, households can boost their energy security with three key steps: energy efficiency upgrades to EPC C, an electric heat pump and an electric vehicle would have end-use energy demand of just 7.3MWh per year.
According to the analysis, this net zero household would benefit most from the rollout of UK renewables that use no fuel, such as solar and wind. With faster renewables deployment, only 7% of the net zero household’s end-use energy would be linked back to imports.
Overall, ECIU found that the net zero household in 2030 could have an import dependency of just 13%, compared to the 67% of the typical household in 2024.
Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, head of analysis at ECIU, said: “If you want your home to be ‘energy patriotic’, running off more homegrown British energy, then electric heat pumps and EVs powered by British renewable electricity will cut your foreign energy dependence massively.
“New exploration in the North Sea is largely irrelevant for energy security, likely to make only a very marginal difference, and certainly not to bills given prices are largely set internationally. If you’re not focused on renewables, you’re not focused on energy independence. That’s simply the way the numbers stack up.”
