Energy market consultancy Cornwall Insight says the provisional results from the Irish Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS) show “good progress” but the country’s 2030 electricity decarbonisation target will still be missed.
New analysis from Cornwall Insight projects that, based on the already existing and contracted capacity, 4GW of solar will be online by 2030, with just over 5GW of onshore wind.
Assuming that a total of 17GW of installed onshore wind and solar capacity would be needed to reach the Irish government’s target of sourcing 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030, both solar and onshore wind generation will each be 4GW short.
The RESS 4 auction saw solar secure nearly double the capacity of the previous year – 960MW, up from 498 MW in RESS 3. Onshore wind also saw a boost, with 374MW secured, more than double the 148MW procured in 2023.
Ahead of the auction, in August Cornwall Insight suggested that the 80% target would only be met by 2032. Part of the reason for this delay, its analysis showed, was that planning delays and grid connection shortages were significant barriers for generators submitting bids.
The Irish Department of Energy, Climate and Communications (DECC) implemented some positive changes to this auction round, including allowing generators to delay their required operational date by up to two years if grid connection issues or judicial reviews of planning permission arise, helping competition rise and strike prices fall.
Energy market analytics firm Aurora Energy Research said RESS 4 was “surprisingly” successful, attributing that success to this expansion of eligibility requirements. However, Cornwall Insight’s latest figures show that more needs to be done to rebuild momentum in the onshore wind sector and incentivise further investment at scale.
This was the final auction that will see awarded projects come online ahead of 2030. The Irish government said RESS 4 secured an increase of over 20% in Ireland’s renewable energy capacity.
These results, according to senior consultant at Cornwall Insight Ratnottama Sengupta, “show that the government is listening and responding to industry concerns”.
Sengupta continued: “While it is important to recognise the achievements in the latest auction, if we are to reach the 2030 renewables goal, we need to ramp up the momentum in upcoming auctions. We cannot afford to become complacent. It is clear the auction structure needs to be made more attractive to investors if they want to reach their target.”
Another issue identified by Cornwall Insight was that no hybrid projects were awarded. The consultancy cites confusion over what is defined as a hybrid project and a lack of national framework as key reasons for this. For Sengupta, hybrid projects could be “a game-changer” for hitting renewables targets while ensuring flexibility needs are met.
“If the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications wants to encourage hybrid projects, they must examine current barriers and consider whether hybrid projects need to sit outside RESS or as a separate pot within the auction.
“It is crucial to stay optimistic and acknowledge the growth in renewables as a positive start. However, at this current rate, the government will fall short of its bold targets.”
