A new report by Ember has predicted that 2024 could mark the first year that low-carbon energy generation could overtake fossil fuel energy generation in the UK.
The report analyses energy generation and imports into the UK between January and November 2024, as well as provided forecasts for generation for the final month of the year. Low-carbon generation is defined as wind energy, solar power, and hydropower, but does not include nuclear energy or biomass.
Analyis showed that between January and November of this year, 37% of UK electricity came from low-carbon sources, totalling 103TWh. This slightly edges out fossil fuel generation, which made up 35% of UK power generation for a total of 97TWh.
Wind power continues to be the largest player in the UK renewable energy sector, alone generating 29% of all the UK’s electricity across the year for a total of 82TWh. Much of the 1.5% increase in UK wind generation this year is due to a large increase in power from onshore wind, which increased by 23% across 2024, an increase Ember credits to increased wind speeds across the UK.
Depending on December’s wind energy output and usage, wind power could overtake fossil gas as the UK’s largest single source of electricity for 2024, with fossil gas usage sitting at 85TWh, or 30% of UK usage at present. Gas usage has continued to plummet in 2024, with Ember noting that gas use has decreased by 13% over the year compared to the previous, replaced by electricity imports and clean power. This marks the lowest level of gas-powered generation since 1996 – 28 years ago – and the drop represents the second-largest annual reduction in gas usage outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Fossil generation overall has fallen by two-thirds since 2020, with the continued decline of fossil fuels in 2024 partially thanks to the closure of the UK’s final operational coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, earlier this year.
Frankie Mayo, senior energy and climate analyst (UK) at Ember, said, “The renewables future is here. This long-awaited milestone is a testament to how much progress the UK has made. It’s time to seize the moment, to cut reliance on expensive gas with new renewables, storage, and grid upgrades. With the phase-out of coal power completed this year, reducing gas use is the next big opportunity for the country. “
