The UK’s grid operator, National Grid ESO, has launched its 2024 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) report for 2024, outlining possible pathways to net zero by 2050.
The FES outlines “different, credible” pathways to reaching net zero by 2050, each one taking into account how much energy the UK may need and where it can be sourced from, and identifying strategic choices that can be made on the path to net zero.
Three pathways have been identified: the “holistic transition”, where net zero is met through a mix of electrification and hydrogen; “electric engagement”, where net zero is met through mainly electrified demand and consumers are “highly engaged in the energy transition through smart technologies”; “hydrogen evolution” where net zero is met through “fast progress for hydrogen”. A fourth, “counterfactual” pathway where net zero is missed is also considered. The report details the expected energy provision for all of these scenarios, while also making ten strategic recommendations to help reach the best possible scenario.
The strategic actions recommended include delivering market reform, a focus on energy efficiency improvements to reduce overall energy demand, and accelerating progress on low carbon heating.
As part of the FES, National Grid ESO details the timeline for which certain decarbonisation milestones must be achieved in order to meet each scenario, including the ending of gas grid connections to new homes, the end of fossil fuel powered car sales, and the milestone of 4 in 5 homes using low-carbon heating over natural gas boilers.
In the foreward to the report, Claire Dykta, National Grid ESO director of strategy and policy, said: “The evolving dynamics of the energy system call for decisive action within the next two years to deliver the fundamental changes required to achieve a fair, affordable, sustainable and secure clean energy system by 2050. This means we must prioritise steps that will enable the delivery of cleaner, cheaper energy generation whilst ensuring a resilient system that delivers security of supply for consumers”.
She added: “Decarbonisation of the energy system is the challenge of our generation. In recognition of the expansive industry transformation required to Great Britain’s energy network planning, this year’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) framework has evolved from ‘scenarios’ to ‘pathways’ to explore narrower ranges and strategic, credible choices to propel us on the route to decarbonisation.”
