Britain will miss its 2035 net zero power system target if the delivery and deployment of wider infrastructure does not pick up pace.
This is one of the key findings in the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) latest report, entitled Delivering a reliable and resilient decarbonised power system, which found that the current regulatory, planning and consenting regimes are slowing the rollout of low-carbon infrastructure.
If the country is to decarbonise its power system, the government must remove the barriers to swift deployment of critical infrastructure and remedy policy gaps. Doing so will open the path to major new investment in renewable generation and wider infrastructure.
“For 15 years, the Climate Change Committee’s main recommendation has been to decarbonise British electricity. The offer of cheap, decarbonised electricity for every consumer and business is now within reach, thanks to pioneering efforts to develop renewables,” said Lord Deben, chairman of the CCC.
“Now there is more at stake. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought home the fundamental importance of energy security. A reliable energy system based mainly on UK’s plentiful renewable resources now has new significance.
“We know how to do this, but government is asleep at the wheel. Recent commitments for new nuclear and renewables are welcome, but these alone are insufficient. A rapid overhaul of the planning system and regulations is needed. It is not clear where the responsibility lies for the design and operations of our modern energy system rests among key organisations.”
Despite the challenges, a reliable, secure and decarbonised power system by 2035 is possible, the CCC found, and it set out a comprehensive set of 25 new recommendations to deliver the goal, looking at the rollout of generation technologies, the need for flexibility and the opportunities the transition will create.
Progress made but further policy required to ensure Britain doesn’t fall behind
The report highlights that Britain has made some substantial progress when it comes to decarbonising its power system. Since 2010, emissions from electricity generation have fallen by 69% for example.
It also supports the government’s Energy Security Strategy commitments to renewables and nuclear, which last year raised targets for offshore wind, for example, beyond those suggested by the CCC previously.
Decarbonised electricity by 2035 will open the path to the full decarbonisation of other sectors such as transport, industry and heat, allowing them to adopt technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps.
And a decarbonised system can be achieved, as modelled by the CCC, with the introduction of a series of urgent changes.
“Countries around the world are now racing for this goal. The UK is further ahead than most, but we risk losing our early lead at the worst possible time,” warned Lord Deben.
These include careful system-level and asset-level planning and design decisions to be made from the outset to ensure a decarbonised system with a higher degree of weather dependence can be reliable and resilient. The government must either take on the role of designing this overall system or delegate clearly to a body that has both the powers and capacity to do so.
“The climate risks to the electricity system are currently underplayed. Climate-related impacts will multiply as the UK relies increasingly on electricity for heat and transport needs,” said Baroness Brown, chair of the Adaptation Committee.
“The CCC’s analysis shows that a well-designed decarbonised power system, with a higher degree of weather-dependent generation, can be reliable and resilient. This is not an issue for the future, we need to build in that resilience now, as we scale the electricity system to meet our net zero targets.”
As mentioned above, processes such as planning, consenting and connections must be reformed to allow the speed of delivery of infrastructure. Historical build rates for both generation and network capacity will need to be exceeded, representing large increases on today’s assets.
Given the level of infrastructure needed for such, we “must not miss the opportunity to build in system-and asset-level resilience from the start”, noted the CCC.
Concern around the impact of network infrastructure of decarbonisation has been growing in Britain, with generators and battery energy storage owners reporting waits of more than a decade for a grid connection.
Work is already underway to help ease this, including both traditional upgrades and the rollout of innovative new technologies both by distribution network operators and National Grid. Additionally, the ESO recently announced a new two-step process for grid applications, designed to ease waiting times and speed the development of low-carbon technologies.
“The networks are ready to invest, innovate and deliver but a lack of political action risks holding decarbonisation back,” noted Lawrence Slade, chief executive of the Energy Networks Association in response to the CCC’s report.
A focus on flexibility
Not only will the decarbonisation of the electricity sector lower emissions, with renewables the cheapest form of generation, the rollout of these technologies will lower power prices.
The variability of these sources of generation must be managed, and this does incur some extra costs to the wider system, but these are managed with a combination of low-carbon flexibility options, which will make up a relatively small proportion of generation and capacity.
Going forwards, the CCC argued, the government must give equal focus to low-carbon flexible solutions as it does to the full delivery of its existing renewables and nuclear commitments. This will be vital to ensuring the future variable generator dominated system is reliable and resilient, in particular to potential weather extremes.
The CCC’s modelling showed that in a typical year, a balanced supply mix could be made up of around 70% of generation could come from variable renewables, complemented by around 20% of relatively inflexible generation from nuclear and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The remaining generation is expected to come from low-carbon back-up generation sources, such as hydrogen-fired turbines and fossil gas plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as other forms of flexibility.
When assessing the needs of the future system, the government and other bodies must take into account its resiliency during plausible extreme weather and demand scenarios. For example, changes in the frequency of and intensity of large-scale wind droughts due to climate change cannot be ruled out based on current evidence, and must be considered in the future design.
Delivering the portfolio of low-carbon flexibility and back-up capacity needed will require new regulation, incentives and business models, the CCC suggests. These must be put in place urgently to enable the necessary investment decisions to take place in a timely fashion and at an appropriate scale.
Regulatory frameworks and market design must be capable of galvanising the £300-400 billion of investment required to support supply chains.
Some of the potential sources of low-carbon flexibility outlined by the CCC include responsive demand – solutions like smart EV charging – interconnection, storage and low-carbon back-up plants.
These technologies will enable smart shifting of consumer demand, helping to smooth peaks and absorb excess supply, especially though timed charging of EVs and use of heat pumps.
Already we have seen some success in the use of domestic demand shifting through National Grid ESO’s Demand Flexibility Service this winter.
However, the Committee also regards a small amount of remaining unabated fossil gas capacity in 2035 as compatible with a decarbonised power system. This would be used occasionally to balance the system and ensure security of supply.
This is expected to have a minimal impact, and contribute just 2% of the annual generation mix by 2035.
It may be possible to have an energy system by 2035 that does not utilise this unabated gas, but it is likely to increase costs and include delivery risks. Therefore ensuring there is sufficient gas capacity on the system to accommodate a range of weather extremes must be considered.
Hydrogen: Low-carbon flexibility
A key source of low-carbon flexibility outlined by the CCC is hydrogen, with the report stating there’s an important role for government in setting the strategic direction for power and non-power uses of hydrogen.
Regardless of the 2026 decision on the potential use of hydrogen to heat buildings, infrastructure will be needed to support the use of the fuel, and therefore the government should identify low-regret investments that it can proceed now to support the sector.
Decisions on hydrogen transmission and the development of business models for the transportation and storage of the fuel should be fast-tracked, given the long lead times associated with hydrogen storage in particular.
If there are delays to the delivery of hydrogen infrastructure, this could limit the role of the fuel in the 2035 energy system, including its potential use as back-up power.
Additionally, if the use of hydrogen in electricity is towards the high end of its potential range, the government’s targets for production will be insufficient.
The UK government has been cautious in its approach to hydrogen, setting an initial goal of just 5GW of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030 – significantly lower than countries such as the US, Germany and Australia – in its Hydrogen Strategy.
A negative response from industry prompted this figure to be increased to 10GW, with 5GW to come from green hydrogen.
Within the CCC’s report, it notes that pushing out all hydrogen and fossil fuels from the grid by 2035 looks implausible, given the constraints of feasible build-out of net zero capacity. But by 2050, demand for fossil gas with CCS can be expected to reduce as green hydrogen increasingly displaces blue.
The opportunity: Surging employment and GVA
The transition to a net zero power system by 2035 offers the UK substantial growth opportunities, for the economy and beyond.
For example, currently there are over 31,000 people across the UK employed in the offshore wind sector alone. This is set to grow 97,000 by 2030 thanks to £155 billion in private investment, with further investment and employment also expected in solar and onshore wind.
The UK could become a global leader in emerging technologies such as floating wind, which could potentially deliver 43.6 billion in UK gross value add (GVA) by 2050.
Additional areas of growth include electricity storage, hydrogen infrastructure, smart charging of EVs, flexible heating systems, electricity networks and interconnection.
Today’s report builds on the CCC’s progress report last June, which warmed that “major failures” in government programmes meant that the UK would not hit net zero.
