Ben Nelmes, CEO, New AutoMotive
By May 2023, one in three new cars registered in the UK will be fully electric
Demand for electric vehicles continued to grow over 2022 – the first six months of the year saw more electric cars registered than in the whole of 2020. New AutoMotive’s modelling suggests this trend will continue in 2023, and that within the first six months of 2023 one in every three new cars registered will be a fully electric vehicle.
A number of new electric models from Chinese marques will become available in the UK and help drive up electric cars share of the new car market
This growth will be driven at least partly by a wave of new and relatively cheap electric cars from Chinese manufacturers becoming available in the UK. Chinese marques like Great Wall Motors and BYD are already well established in China and Europe, and will offer a wide range of EVs to British consumers, driving take-up.
Demand for electric vans will continue to grow, and electric vans share of the new van market in the UK will reach 15% by the end of 2023
New electric van sales met or exceeded the proposed Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate target of 8% market share for 2024 four times over the course of 2022. Demand will continue to grow in 2023, as more businesses become wise to the running cost savings e-vans offer – assuming the government acts to extend current support measures in place for businesses.
Demand Side Response makes strides
The continuing cost of living crisis will advance demand side response (a way to make energy demand more flexible, by using energy more intelligently) as a viable energy cost savings strategy. Mechanisms including time of use tariffs, but also active measures like the new “Demand Flexibility Service”, monetising the active shifting of load away from periods of peak demand, will become more popular.
New Electric Vehicle sales continue to be limited by slow delivery from the car manufacturers
Demand for EVs has remained strong, even grown through 2022. Sadly however, in terms of new EVs, car manufacturers have only managed to consistently deliver ever longer lead times, hampering market growth. This is due to post-pandemic supply chain constraints, a battery material bottleneck, and a lack of forward planning in recent years. All of these factors will be overcome in the short-medium term, but too late to see 2023 as the year the car companies up their EV delivery game.
Used EV sector to grow
As car brands have struggled to deliver new EVs, so the demand and residual value of used EVs has grown. Now over 3 years since the UK arrival of the Tesla Model 3, and the beginning of the April 2020 BiK reductions, a host of ex-company vehicles should be coming to market, helping the supply side. With demand high and supply growing, the used market may be the place to be for EV sales in 2023.