Norwegian-headquartered consultancy firm DNV has disclosed that the UK is set to miss its net zero by 2050 target and its decarbonisation commitments for 2030.
DNV has released the second edition of its UK Energy Transition Outlook (UK ETO), which presents the results from its independent model of the UK energy system for the period through 2050.
The UK ETO forecasts the energy supply, mix and demand and also provides insight into how the energy transition is developing in the UK.
A primary takeaway from the report’s findings is that, despite a strong start several years ago, the UK’s strong progress on the energy transition appears to be stalling. The UK ETO details how, without increased government intervention, the country will not meet its net zero by 2050 target.
The scale of the UK’s shift to electricity as a power source, away from fossil fuels, is lower than initially reported in first iteration of the UK ETO. As such, oil and gas will still account for 35% of the UK’s primary energy supply mix in 2050.
The UK is not on track to meet targets
DNV’s forecast shows that the UK’s annual emissions will be reduced by 85% by 2050 relative to 1990 levels – not the 100% reduction legislated for in 2019.
That means Britain is not on track to meet its legally binding ‘Net Zero by 2050’ target or its 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The transport and buildings sectors will be the major remaining contributors to the total annual emissions in 2050. In transport, a sizeable proportion of vehicles, particularly commercial ones, will continue to be fossil-fuelled.
Due to the projected slow penetration of low-carbon fuels such as synthetic e-fuels and hydrogen by 2050, aviation will maintain high carbon emissions.
UK economy to benefit from a green energy system
Decarbonisation comes with a green dividend for UK households. The DNV report projects that the average energy spend will drop by 40% in the next 30 years. The forecast annual energy infrastructure CAPEX spend is set to increase from an annual average of £26 billion in previous decades to around £38 billion per year over the next 30 years.
Excluding the costs of house insulation improvements, the UK ETO forecast shows that total household energy costs are expected to drop below 2021 levels by 2026 and gradually reduce to nearly 40% below 2021 levels by 2050. The decline in household energy expenditure is driven by increased electrification of both household heating and passenger transport, leading to an overall reduction in energy demand.
Still, by 2050 only a third of homes will have heat pumps, with over half still using natural gas for heating. Large-scale heat pump uptake is shown to be hindered in the UK by costs and insulation requirements.
Partial decarbonisation is achievable
Low-carbon energy sources are expected to rise from 20% of UK primary energy today to 65% by 2050, at which time 35% will come from fossil fuels.
Currently, around 80% of UK energy comes from fossil fuels, renewables contribute 13%, and the remaining 7% comes from nuclear. Heavy reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decade, despite expected renewables build-out, only reducing to a 70% contribution by 2031.
By 2050, though, low-carbon supply sources will be meeting nearly 65% of UK energy needs. The report shows that a major factor in fossil fuels’ continued presence is their unabated use in household heating and aviation.
The future for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is promising.
Energy demand will fall by a quarter by 2050
The UK ETO anticipates a shift towards electricity as the key future energy carrier. Due to efficiency gains from this, UK energy demand growth will be de-coupled from economic growth. By 2050, electricity will deliver close to half of the UK’s final energy demand.
Electricity demand in the UK will increase
Electricity generation in the UK will increase from 315 TWh/yr today to 700 TWh/yr in 2050.
Further, the report expects electricity generation will shift away from fossil fuels to variable renewable energy sources (VRES). VRES will be supplying three-quarters of total electricity by 2050 compared to only a quarter today.
By 2050, the electricity system will see variability almost double up to 20%, caused by the increased penetration of variable renewables in the supply mix. That will require flexibility response to double within the overall electricity system.
Most (85%) of that should be provided in equal parts by: 190 GWh of utility-scale battery storage, 20 GW of dispatchable thermal generation and some of the 35 GW of total electrolysis capacity to convert electricity to hydrogen during periods of excess wind and solar generation.
The remainder would be interconnectors with other power grids in Europe.
Hari Vamadevan, executive vice-president, and regional director, UK & Ireland for Energy Systems at DNV said: “Drastic action is required as we look into the abyss of the most dangerous environmental and ecological disaster to ever impact mankind – and time is running out to reverse the effect.
“We need to move forward, faster, together to scale technology to decarbonize society and the energy industry.”
