The latest report from BloombergNEF (BNEF) has revealed that while global EV sales are continuing to rise, the gap between EV popularity in different nations continues to widen.
BNEF has forecast that almost 22 million passenger EVs will be sold this year, up by 25% from last year. Of these, China is expected to account for almost two thirds of sales, with Europe making up 17% of sales and the US making up 7%. Last year, China accounted for 65% of all EVs sold, a figure set to rise to 67% this year.
The proportion of new car sales made up by EVs is set to rise from 26% this year up to 42% by the year 2030, by which point China is expected to have an EV penetration of 80%, while 52% of European cars will be EVs.
Part of the reason China’s EV market is so strong is the relative affordability of EVs in the nation. China is the only large market where EVs are, on average, cheaper to buy than comparable internal combustion engine cars; as such, China’s EV market will be larger than the total market for all vehicles in the US within the next year.
Sales are set to rise by approximately 20% in Europe this year, but will generally stagnate in the US. Policy changes in the US have dampened optimism for the future of the EV market, including the cancellation of the US$7,500 EV tax credit, reduced support for EV charging infrastructure and automotive import tariffs of 25%.
Meanwhile, the UK leads among major car markets outside of China, and is the leading EV market among large countries in Europe. BNEF predicts that EVs will make up 40% of all cars sold in the UK by 2026.
Recent figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) have shown that the variety of vehicles available as EVs in the UK has been growing at a rapid pace, with UK car buyers able to choose from over 130 different battery electric vehicle (BEV) options, up from 102 models last year, as well as over 100 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and 50 hybrid electric vehicles (HEV); two in five vehicles for sale in the UK are now available as full BEVs.
Furthermore, the report predicts that EVs will account for 11% of global electricity demand by 2050, although this will vary by region, with EVs accounting for 20% of electricity demand by 2040 and 9% by 2040 in China.
“Despite significant leaps in EV adoption globally, stable and comprehensive policy still matters in advancing it further” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BNEF. She added: “Automakers that lose sight of the longer-term trend towards electrification – supported by falling battery prices and improving economics of EVs – risk being squeezed out of the major car markets.”
