The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has released the Seventh Carbon Budget and provided advice to the UK government on how to achieve this decarbonisation milestone.
The CCC has set the recommended level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, which covers the five years between 2038 to 2042, as 532 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. This target – which represents a three-quarters cut from current emissions levels – has been called “ambitious” by the CCC, especially given that the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 alone were 423.3 MtCO2e.
The CCC, a statutory body established as part of the Climate Change Act of 2008, is required to regularly advise the UK government on its legally binding carbon emissions limits, known as the carbon budget, as well as provide advice to the government on how this can be achieved.
The figure for the Seventh Carbon Budget has been based on what the CCC calls its Balanced Pathway, an emissions reduction plan covering the quarter century between 2025 and the UK’s net zero target year of 2050.
So far, the UK has successfully met the emissions reductions laid out in the First, Second and Third Carbon Budgets, which covered the periods of 2008 to 2012, 2013 to 2017 and 2018 to 2022, with around half of the emissions reductions seen over this time attributed to the phase-out of coal-fired power and rise of renewable energy.
Between now and the beginning of the Seventh Carbon Budget, several milestones are still ahead in the form of the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Carbon Budgets, covering the periods 2023 to 2027, 2028 to 2032, and 2033 to 2037, which are legislated at 1,950 MtCO2e, 1,725 MtCO2e, and 965 MtCO2e respectively. The Sixth Carbon Budget is significantly lower, as this is the first set in line with a target of net zero by 2050 and not the previous 80% emissions reduction by 2050 goal.
Delivering the Seventh Carbon Budget
The CCC states that the Seventh Carbon Budget will be delivered through five key routes: electricity, low-carbon fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS), nature, engineered removals, and demand. Around 60% of the emissions reduction needed will be delivered via electrification, including low-carbon electricity supply, the rise of EVs, increased uptake of heat pumps and industrial electrification. The report notes that “rapid, widespread roll-out of EVs, heat pumps, and electric industrial heat is crucial for delivering the Seventh Carbon Budget”.
Taking this up, Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said: “Phasing out gas boilers for electric heat pumps is going to be crucial for the UK’s energy independence, as sticking with the status quo will simply mean importing more gas from abroad as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline.”
Delivering the Balanced Pathway over the next 25 years is expected to cost around £110 billion, most of which will need to be spent in the first half of the transition period. Notably, the Seventh Carbon Budget covers the time period in which the CCC predicts that the operational savings delivered by decarbonisation will overtake the expenditure needed to deliver it, with a net saving of around £35 billion expected by 2050.
Chief executive of Good Energy Nigel Pocklington commented that the government should, in meeting the CCC’s budget, move policy costs off electricity and into general tax. If costs were levied “through a more progressive tax system, “not only would charging an EV or switching to a heat pump become more cost effective, everyone would get lower bills,” Pocklington said.
EVs ‘crucial’ priority
The CCC forecasts that by 2040, around 80% of cars and 74% of vans on UK roads will be EVs in its Balanced Pathway, noting that the falling cost of batteries will allow EVs to reach price parity with comparable petrol or diesel vehicles from as soon as 2026 to 2028. Furthermore, the report adds that a “crucial enabler” of EV uptake is a reliable network of public chargepoints, noting that the “strong growth” seen in this area needs to continue to enable EV sales.
The report lays out 43 priority recommendations for the government to implement to deliver the Budget. These include making electricity cheaper to encourage homes to electrify, removing planning barriers to installing low-carbon technologies, implementing an engagement strategy to aid government in communicating net zero strategies with the public, and supporting households to install low-carbon heating.
RenewableUK’s director of future electricity systems Barnaby Wharton pointed out that the carbon budget “puts offshore wind right at the heart of the UK’s clean electricity system”.
Wharton added: “The CCC is right to highlight the importance of reforming planning rules so that we can get on with building this much-needed new generation and grid infrastructure. As the Committee notes, this will enable everyone to benefit from domestically produced low-carbon electricity, reducing household bills in the long term and boosting the UK’s energy security.”
