The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has written to the minister of state for energy security and net zero, Graham Stuart, to warn him against meeting Carbon Budgets with surplus.
Carbon Budgets, of which there are five, are legally binding carbon emission reduction targets for the UK over five-year periods set by the government on the advice of the CCC.
The Third Carbon Budget (2018-2022) was met with surplus, meaning the government recorded a surplus amount of carbon emission was left unreduced. This has been primarily attributed to external factors, mainly the economy-shrinking effects of the COVID pandemic.
The CCC initially wrote to Graham Stuart to congratulate him and the UK government as a whole for meeting its legal obligations, but in saying so, it advised that surplus emissions must not be carried forward to loosen later carbon budgets.
Carbon Budgets are provided on the basis that there would be no carry-forward of surplus emissions, which the CCC says is essential for the UK to reach its 2050 net zero goals.
The government is, however, making progress, evident from the fact the UK became the first major economy globally to halve its carbon emissions this month (February).
Official statistics confirmed that between 1990 and 2022, the country reduced its carbon emissions by 50%, in contrast with a 23% reduction in France and zero change in the US as of 2021.
The CCC suggested that the government’s triumphs in this field are the result of good progress in the decarbonisation of electricity supply through a “faster-than-expected” phase-out of coal, but other sectors like transport and buildings are not yet on track.
Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, said: “We congratulate the government on meeting the latest emissions target – the Climate Change Act is working.
“But the path ahead is tougher, and we risk losing momentum if future legal targets are loosened on a technicality. The UK is already substantially off track for 2030, and the government must resist the temptation to take their foot off the accelerator.”
Growing concerns
The CCC has been raising its concerns regarding the UK’s ability to meet its self-imposed climate ambitions for a considerable time.
In June 2023, the Committee released its annual report, which commended the government for establishing a structured net zero strategy but said policy gaps remained and that delivery was lagging behind the goals previously set.
The report ultimately said that the UK was not on track to meet the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the UN process for a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030.
Later in 2023, after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced delays to certain net zero ambitions, the CCC spoke out against the decision, arguing that the UK’s position as a global leader in climate change was under scrutiny as a result.
Moreover, the trade association Energy UK called on the UK government to introduce renewable investment measures to compete with the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2023.
The firm identified the US and the EU as key competitors to the UK in the renewable energy sector and argued the government needed to further incentivise development in order to compete with other leading countries.