The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has revealed that the UK could lose £65 million in central heating boiler exports if it doesn’t hasten the switch to clean heating.
According to the ECIU, the UK exported roughly £85 million worth of central heating boilers and parts in 2022, with over three-quarters (77%, £65 million) of those being exported to countries which have fossil fuel boiler phase out target dates withing the next seven years.
For instance, the country which imported the most boilers and their parts last year (£50 million) was Ireland which has a fossil fuel phase out target of 2025. Germany and the Netherlands imported £4 million and £1.4 million worth of central heating boilers and also have close phase out dates of 2025 and 2026 respectively.
As importers reach their phase out target date, fossil fuel boiler imports, as well as their parts, will reduce significantly, having a direct impact on the UK’s export capital.
This decline is already visible, the ECIU pointed out, as total exports of fossil fuel boilers and their parts are estimated to have halved between 2019 and 2022, a decrease from roughly £150 million to £85 million.
On the contrary, heat pump sales have spiked in recent years with an estimated 3 million sold in Europe last year according to the ECIU – a 40% increase from 2021.
Becoming a heat pump exporter could help the UK combat the export losses forecast as Europe transitions to clean heating technologies.
“The IMF has said that the UK was worst hit by the gas crisis because we are so dependent on it and the OBR has shown that we could add 13% GDP to debt if we don’t transition away. The North Sea is a declining basin no matter what the Government policy on it, so unless we reduce our gas demand through insulation and heat pumps, we’re going to end up importing more from abroad,” said Jess Ralston, energy analyst at ECIU.
“The switch to clean heat is continuing at pace outside of the UK as the US and Europe learn their lesson from the gas crisis. It’s starting to look like we haven’t.
“The UK’s existing boiler manufacturers must be able to see the writing on the wall. With clear signals from Government on the future of heating at home, we can take our expertise abroad and get ahead on heat pumps before we lose our place amongst the leaders of the world’s heating industry.”
The UK government has a fossil fuel phase out target date of 2035 and has recently confirmed that it will proceed with a clean market mechanism requiring fossil fuel boiler manufacturers to sell a set proportion of heat pumps from 2024 onwards with the figure increasing each year.
The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) dubbed 20023 as the “best year ever” for small-scale renewable installations, including heat pumps which saw a record 3,000 monthly instalment rate for the first six months of 2023.
