Every non-domestic building in London will need to have undergone retrofits by 2050 if the capital is to meet its emission reductions targets, according to a new energy plan released by the London Assembly.
The ‘Scenarios to 2050: London Energy Plan‘ document explores a number of different models to determine the energy requirements of London in the coming decades. While the exercise outlines four different scenarios, only two suggest the measures needed if London is to reach its target to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050.
Both rely on the energy demand of the capital reducing to low levels, but differ between the use of centralised and decentralised supply. However in both scenarios, 100% of non-domestic building stock will have undergone improvements which bring the buildings to 2013 building regulation levels.
In addition, 90% of domestic properties would also have been retrofitted with high cost energy efficiency measures such as solid wall insulation.
This will prove to be good news for the energy efficiency sector, with several representatives suggesting during a recent round table discussion hosted by Clean Energy News that the perception of energy efficiency needed to change in order to increase uptake.
Meeting the 2050 target also relies on improved efficiency of appliances and lighting, which will need to have grown by 50% and 80% respectively. This would result in up to a 30% reduction in appliance and lighting demand. However, these efficiency improvements are expected to be led by EU regulations, highlighting the lack of domestic policy to increase efficiency.
Reducing emissions from transport and heat have proved to be difficult areas for the current government, with emails leaked in November suggesting the UK was in danger of missing its targets in these two areas.
By 2050, the London Energy Plan claims there will need to be either a medium or high uptake in electric vehicle use across the public and private sectors in order to meet carbon reduction targets, with a charging network implemented to support demand.
Both low demand scenarios also predict the wider use of building level heat pumps, reflecting an increased reliance by the city’s growing population which is expected to reach over 11 million by 2050. However, it has been assumed that the electricity grid would have been decarbonised by then, leading to electrical heating becoming more attractive.
Heat networks will also have a significant role to play if London is to hit its targets, with between 10-30% of heating demand to be met by them. A number of projects like these are already underway throughout the city, with heat from diverse sources including waste plant, data centres and even the London Underground being used to heat properties across London. This would need to continue to grow to 2050 alongside increased use of renewable energy.
There would also need to be an increased uptake of demand side response technologies to be driven by an increase in electricity prices.
The London Energy Plan suggests all of these changes will need to have been put in place for London to reach its 80% reduction targets by 2050. It includes a scenario similar to the current situation in London in which there would only be a 60% reduction on 1990 levels.
